The excess mortality rate, which was over 30% in the midst of the corona pandemic, has decreased to around 1%
The end of the COVID-19 pandemic, which paralyzed the world, has also been confirmed statistically.
During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, 30% more Americans died each day than usual. However, the New York Times (NYT) reported on the 18th (local time) that the excess death rate has hit bottom in the 1% range since last March, setting a milestone in the fight against the corona pandemic.
Over the past few years, as it has been difficult to calculate the true impact of COVID-19, the excess death toll has become an important measure of the actual number of deaths from the disease. It also allowed us to look at the indirect effects of Corona, such as deaths due to missing medical treatment during the pandemic.
During the worst of the pandemic, the number of people dying each day in the United States has risen by more than 30% from normal. Over the entire period of the past three years, the excess mortality rate was greater than 10%. But over the past few months, the excess deaths have fallen to nearly zero.
According to the Human Mortality Database (HMD), jointly run by the University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) and the German Population Institute, the number of deaths in the United States has fallen below average since March. Data from The Economist and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) put the excess death toll at less than 1%.
The NYT picked three causes, saying, “Three years after Corona killed more than 1 million Americans and changed some parts of everyday life, the virus has turned into an ordinary disease.” First, about 75% of American adults have received at least one vaccination. Second, about 75% of adults in the United States have been infected with COVID-19 and have gained natural immunity against future symptoms. Finally, treatments such as Paxrovid for those infected have become widely available.
However, the damage of corona has not fallen to zero. According to CDC statistics, the virus has killed about 80 people a day in recent weeks. This is estimated to be about 1% of all daily deaths. There is a statistical gap here. This is because even if there is a separate underlying cause of death, if a person was infected with Corona 19 at the time of death, it is included in this statistic. According to the CDC, nearly a third of official deaths from COVID-19 fall into this category.
The NYT pointed out that most of these Corona 19 deaths are elderly or unvaccinated, and that the latest victims are ironically becoming white Republican supporters. However, the case of COVID-19 as a cause of death has been swept away by other causes of death, such as the flu and traffic accidents, and has fallen to an inconspicuous level.
The NYT reported that almost a year ago, when President Joe Biden declared that “the pandemic is over,” there were criticisms that it was premature, but now it is possible to say that the real epidemic is over.
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